End-Use Consumption Shows No Signs of Improvement, Short-Term Lead Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996/mt, fluctuated rangebound with weak performance during the Asian session, then rallied to $2,007/mt during the European session. However, it erased all gains and plunged due to increased bearish positions, hitting a low of $1,992/mt before closing at $1,994.5/mt, down 0.2%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2510 contract opened at 16,865 yuan/mt, maintained a narrow fluctuation after opening, with a high of 16,890 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,860 yuan/mt, down 0.06%.

On the macro front:

On Wednesday, the US dollar index fluctuated above the 98 mark, then plunged during the US session after job vacancy data showed weak corporate hiring, eventually closing slightly lower. US Fed official Waller stated that he believes the central bank should cut interest rates at the next meeting. Future rate cuts may occur multiple times, but the pace will depend on data. China's Ministry of Commerce: Anti-dumping duties will be imposed on certain single-mode optical fibers originating from the US. The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second head meeting to ensure better implementation of fiscal and monetary policies.

:

SHFE lead held up well, with suppliers actively offloading cargoes and widening discounts in quotations. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement with frequent price negotiations, resulting in limited spot order transactions. Meanwhile, primary lead smelters' offers showed relatively small differences, with some widening discounts against SHFE lead. Mainstream origin quotations were at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 30 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. For secondary lead, regional supply disparities persisted, with secondary refined lead quotations at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works.

Inventory: On September 3, LME lead inventories fell by 3,475 mt to 254,550 mt. As of September 1, SMM's social inventory of lead ingots across five regions totaled 67,100 mt, down around 100 mt from August 28.

Today's lead price forecast:

After the SCO summit and military parade this week, logistics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gradually resumed. With the recovery of scrap recycling businesses, raw material supply in some areas may improve. However, production willingness at secondary lead enterprises remained weak in September, with most having shutdown or production cut plans, likely limiting scrap demand and making it difficult to support significant price increases for waste batteries. End-use consumption showed no signs of improvement, and short-term lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.